20200127 Turn down

As warned in week 20200113, we shall prepare for current volatility.

We will update with next target week as possible bottom date.

20200127 Volatile week

Market still find support till next target week.

Short positions are set up again in past two days and have some day trade for QQQ, Lam research, ASML, NI, CCI, DLR, RIO, MU, WDC though some are lost.

The model pick the turning week to sell most of portfolio and build up bear on HSI for hedging this week waterfall.

The mask manufacturers stock rise over 300%

20200127 Coronavirus related company

We can get some subsidies from investing related companies such as medical and disease control company, protective clothing and mask manufacturers and detection and testing lab and new vaccines development companies. Others company are sanitizer and cleaning manufacturers.

One of it is 3M OEM in Japan

other common known company are 3M, Dupont and Honeywell's. 

20200127 votaile week

This week is expected to be volatile

The long term portfolio had increase cash level in last two week and hold some high dividend stock and 1 reverse ETF.

Short portfolio closed many stock position and hold 17,552,1818, 1883 and bear for capital gain.

For USD short term portfolio, close a lot long position  include Apple, Micron, Workday........and hold utilities and DLR, QQQ is trapped in Friday😭😭😭. 

Hedging includes SPY put, SDOW, VIX etf, SCO, JP225 reverse ETF, japan utilities and tokyu corp

20200120 Panic week

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7929657/Nurse-treating-coronavirus-sufferers-China-claims-90-000-people-infected.html

Lots of things emerge this week and hit market. 

Please be prepared for life and market.

Great cold somewhere.

Volcano activities happens.

Deadly disease along with cold favor condition

Middle east unstable 

The next target is coming to see the magnitude of current volatility. 

20200120 Trump impeachment

"Let them speak: Most Americans want witnesses in Trump impeachment trial - Reuters/Ipsos poll"

https://www.investing.com/news/politics/let-them-speak-most-americans-want-witnesses-in-trump-impeachment-trial--reutersipsos-poll-2065542

20200120 Panic cycle

As warned, this week volatility will rise and should be prepared for next trading cycle when facing poor weather and uncertain virus and also result in strong USD.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3046908/new-china-virus-likely-human-transmission-stage-infections

We will face many change and please be prepare.

20200120 Critical week

伊朗石油因為制裁，早已不能進入市場。其他中東國家又不似會支持伊朗，沙特阿拉伯更加正與伊朗交惡。伊朗唯一可以影響油價的做法便是破壞沙特油田和封鎖霍爾木兹海峽。前者要付出政治代價，後者亦有困難：其他國家包括中國可能會有很大反應，伊朗打斷石油供應鏈亦沒有經濟利益，因為一旦石油出口受阻，伊朗亦會有損失。更重要的是石油出口國組織及美國都會有很大的生產量可以抵消伊朗石油或者波斯灣供應的暫時短缺。

市場反應比較平淡

每日有1,650萬桶重油經過海峽運往世界各地,但少於5% 輸往美國。中國、印度、日本和韓國佔中東地區出口石油的三分之二,如果加上整個亞洲,數字更達到超過80%。西得州和布蘭特期油差價在飛彈消息公布之後收窄，反映市場並不擔心供應出現問題。以往當石油生產設施被攻擊的時候，布蘭特期油升幅高於西得州期油。這次只是針對軍事基地，市場反應反而比較平淡。

要留意的是美國伊朗緊張並不等於油價一定會上升，還要看沽家的熱度。美伊緊張初時引起油價上升，但立即引來石油生產商入市沽售，對冲石油生產。現時13間大石油公司的2020年油產大概只有13%對冲 ，其中一半公司更加沒有對冲。因此油價急升引發大油商入市開對冲，鎖定油價，對油價造成壓力。

This week is critical and let see what happen how the market become volatile and choppy into next target week in Feb.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51165024

20200119 Poor weather and cooling

We have rising volcano activity among ring of fires and huge dust over atmosphere from fires.

Less sunlight is coming and shift of pole all might cause cooling as warned year ago.

We should start monitor this issue against global warming propaganda. 

20200119 how the world change? Freedom or Totalitarianism

https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-51130876

20200113 will you take profit?

When market is making higher, what should do now is the question when coming targetis next week.

Please prepare.

20200113 approach next target week breakout?

 投資者要先了解波動原因
我覺得正確的態度不是鼓勵投資者不要理會波動，而是要提醒投資者要先了解波動的原因，然後才再決定是否入市。波動發生的時候，如果全部都置之不理，很有可能就會對一個大轉捩點失之交臂，對投資組合成績帶來的後果可能有很大的影響。
所謂「短線」波動只是事後才知道的結果。當一個波動發生的時候，我們根本就不能夠確定這個波動是一個大趨勢的開始，抑或只是市場的一個噪音。所以，可以的話應該是留意每一個波動，分析這個波動，然後作出的投資決定。
當然，這個做法有具體困難，因為對小投資者來說，資訊仍然是相對缺乏的。因此一些波動發生的時候，可能找不到理由。有些時候，甚至專業投資者也不知道一剎那間出現的波動究竟是什麼原因導致。這個情况是沒有根本解決辦法，因為這就是市場不可測的一部分。解決這些問題不是靠當時的反應，而是整個投資組合的原先設計。

總而言之，不是不理會波動，而是要了解波動，利用波動。
shunwailee@hotmail.com

[李順威 牛熊共舞]

Market made new high last despite of political event in Iran. We should prepare  for next week.

20200106 Target week

Market break out again in target week.

Let's how high it will be.

And next target is coming 18/1

20200106 let target week

Gold hit and break 1575 level.

Will it confirm breakout this month?

Let see

20200106 SaaS form temp bottom

Market rebound and SaaS form temp low.

20200106 Target week

This week will breakout?

過去6年金價1月皆錄升幅

白銀在2019年5月低位14.2940美元反彈，最高上升至9月4日的19.6497美元。這段升市發生當時，我在專欄和讀者會通訊都有介紹入市。亦在高位時候提出套利。白銀之後輾轉回落，最低在12月6日見16.5314美元。在12月23日時候，我在讀者會談室說白銀正考驗17.435美元阻力，一個完整的TD9上升設局將會完成，季節因素在未來數天亦有利白銀。白銀在24日亞洲市衝破阻力，冉冉上升，亦引發金礦股做好。看好白銀的聲音頓時增加，原因包括：白銀升破下降軌、白銀供應下降造成短缺、投機倉白銀長倉徘徊、交易所掛牌基金近月減持白銀，蓄成購買力。

現在的白銀反彈雖然升破9月以來的下降軌，但是仍不能確定是另一個升浪的開始。我們沒有辦法肯定任何資產走勢的後向，但只要入市位和時間適合，推高止賺加上分段套利便立於不敗之地。

美伊關係緊張 天賜「金」機

投資入市的一個重點是時間。在過去6年，黃金價格在1月份都上升，金礦股指數亦有同樣走勢。一個理論是中國在農曆新年之前買入黃金造成需求，另一個解釋是投資者在新一年開始部署組合買入避險資產。這些理論都是似是而非經不起深究。根據彭博調查，交易員及分析員對未來一個星期的黃金走勢多數看好——11個看好，2個看淡，4個中性。在過去10年，有8年黃金在12月23日至1月3日上升，平均回報1.4%。即使在過去30年表現最差的2013年，黃金在這段時間也照樣上升。上周剛發生的美國襲殺伊朗將領消息更好像天賜「金」機。

shunwailee@hotmail.com

[李順威 牛熊共舞]

20191230 breakout extending

Market has reaction low and break out again.

The target is next week. How high it will be?