Thursday, February 27, 2020

20200224 Panic week


Being trip in Japan, no time update 

星期三時候的認沽期權成交升上兩年以來最高水平。星期四期權認沽認購比率上升至1.36水平,雖然不算極端,但已進入以前市場反轉的水平。

美股低開,差不多全面下跌,納斯達克、運輸、銀行、细價、半導體股、生化科技股、軟件股全部下跌接近3%,這次是搞平均,並沒有特別差的 -- 除了能源探採股,跌幅達到8% 。天然氣股跌幅更加達到18%! 當時納斯達克指數交易所掛牌基金大概在209 ,我在讀者會談室表示沽售已經過度 ,大銀行和大科技股應該沒有問題。股市就在這個時間差不多開始反彈,收窄跌幅。反彈到214美元水平,我說並不是萬事大吉,要調高止賺。結果不幸言中,美股轉頭下跌 ,跌穿低位。主要指指數跌幅接近或超過5%,非常利害。影響市場的消息是加利福尼亞州正監察8400個可能個案。然更具體的因素是孖展和程式盤沽售,最後15分鐘根本是不計價沽售 ,尾市賣盤不平衡近40億美元。

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

fate of Japan

https://www.facebook.com/298106744022894/posts/800935057073391/

Japan will soon suffer the ignorance  of career politician Abe and know nothing about real market and operation.

Will Japanese turn to against him and select right person rather than politician?

Monday, February 17, 2020

20200217 what will come in recession?

【疫情影響】美商會:三分一工廠無法開工 或遷出中國
https://finance.now.com/news/post.php?id=566154&isapp=1

If the company is not chinese and supported by CCP, the company will not resume operation easily.

This is game and power mutual challenge.
The wish of CCP is better than USA. Will they pay a way to lose their economy power though coming recession in 2024?

Sunday, February 9, 2020

20200210 Target week

Hedging is set up and hope going into anticipate direction.

Hedging tool is HSI bear, Nikkei 225 reverse etf and DJI reverse ETF which are good choices.

應維持核心持貨 候低分段買入

我在1月26日讀者會通訊分析「最值得留意的其實不是肺炎傳染,而是盤路傾側。從盤路部署可以見到長倉偏高,因此很容易出現技術沽售壓力。現時入市策略不妨保守一點,維持核心持貨和對冲,候低分段買入……對冲空倉對象是財務股及科技股。」這個事前部署有對有錯。對的是保守策略,錯的是空倉對象。以科技股(納指)為空倉對象主要是考慮跟貼大市,但結果卻出現納指表現強於標指的問題,歸根結柢就是因為科技股業績理想之故——之後我的空倉對象也有所調整。

業績說到底是決定股價的最基本因素。根據摩根大通分析,1月底時有40%標普500公司已經宣布了業績,歐洲16%,日本有21%。已經公布業績的標普500公司每股盈利增長6%,美國大部分界別的業績都優於預期,科技股最好。

疫情對歐洲影響大於美國

歐洲公司64%盈利優於預期(但只有2%幅度),盈利增長率跌3%;商品、工業股最差,科技、可選擇消費、地產和公用股成績較好。

日本有53%公司盈利優於預期,整體增長率跌4%。特別的是盈利優於預期的歐洲公司股價有好反應,盈利差於預期的也沒有怎樣受到懲罰,這是一個特別的改變,市場反應和最近數季有所不同。

但歐洲也有歐洲的問題,以往疫症跌市時間,歐洲跌幅大於美國。而且今時更差於往日,因為中國經濟比SARS時期增長超過一倍,對歐洲重要性增加了五倍。因此理論上新冠狀傳染病對歐洲的影響會大於美國。亞洲則是更直接的災區,中港台大中華區很難倖免。

對於這次新冠狀傳染病的影響,我仍然偏向樂觀,原因是因傳染病引發的經濟問題並不會在結構上破壞需求,只是會延遲需求。不過,碰上盤路傾側,需要調整,事情便變得複雜。

shunwailee@hotmail.com

[李順威 牛熊共舞]

Saturday, February 8, 2020

20200206 shutdown of china and how dependence the supply chain

CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK

China blocks restart of Foxconn plants due to coronavirus: sources

Move further disrupts production of Apple, Amazon and Huawei devices

The disruption to Foxconn production will likely impact the supply of iPhones. (Nikkei montage/Reuters)
TAIPEI/HONG KONG -- Key iPhone supplier Foxconn's plan to resume production on Monday has been called off by the Chinese authorities due to worries surrounding the coronavirus outbreak, the Nikkei Asian Review has learned.

The action further worsens the supply chain disruption for global electronics companies, including Apple, Amazon, Google and Huawei. Foxconn is the world's biggest iPhone assembler, and it makes Huawei smartphones and Amazon Kindle tablets as well as echo speakers, while it also supplies HP, Dell and most the major electronics brands.

Public health experts in Shenzhen informed Foxconn, which trades as Hon Hai Precision Industry, that its factories there face "high risks of coronavirus infection" after conducting on-site inspections and therefore are not suitable to restart work, four people familiar with the matter told Nikkei.

Foxconn's Zhengzhou complex, which is the world's biggest iPhone production base, also canceled plans to resume work on Monday, they said.

"The local governments do not want to risk the potential virus spreading in such a labor-intensive working environment. No one wants to bear the responsibility of restarting work at this critical moment," one of the sources, who has been briefed by Foxconn's plan, said.

The health risks pointed out by the Shenzhen public health authorities include poor airflow of the restaurants and employees' dormitories, according to the internal meeting memo. Given that the production facilities use central air conditioning, the working environment poses even higher risks due to the density of workers, the memo showed.

However, Foxconn may find it challenging to address such concerns given that the central air conditioning system is part of the equipment necessary to prevent dust from disrupting the production process.

The iPhone assembler on Friday afternoon canceled the flight bookings for Taiwanese employees to go back to China between Saturday and Feb. 14 after a video conference held by Chairman Young Liu in the morning, sources said.

Liu decided that Foxconn's Zhengzhou complex could not restart work unless it had been evaluated and approved by the local government, they said.

Foxconn's display arm, Innolux, which has facilities in Shenzhen, on Friday published a note to employees advising them not to come back to its Longhua complex on Monday, according to a separate internal announcement seen by Nikkei.

"The government has been extremely strict this time," said a Shenzhen-based Apple supplier who works closely with Foxconn.

The extended shutdown comes at a time when the inventory of iPhones -- and the iPhone 11 in particular -- has already been running low. The latest pushback adds another delay in Apple's product shipment plans.

Apple has also extended retail store closures in China, with most stores remaining closed until Feb. 15 amid the worsening coronavirus outbreak, Bloomberg News reported.

Foxconn's delayed return to work will be a warning sign to other electronics suppliers, as the Taiwanese manufacturing giant has been taking aggressive steps to prevent the spread of the virus. It has even made its own surgical masks for internal use.

iPad supplier Compal Electronics on Friday also postponed  plans to resume work at its Kunshan facilities, located in Jiangsu Province, from Monday to Feb. 17, the company announced on its WeChat account.

China's National Health Commission said Friday that the coronavirus epidemic so far has caused 722 deaths in the country, with 31,774 confirmed patients. The deadly outbreak has sparked anger in China and caught global attention, and more than 400 government officials have lost their jobs or been punished for malfeasance, the Xinhua News Agency reported.

Foxconn told the Nikkei Asian Review that the operation schedules for its facilities in China follow the recommendations of the local governments, and "we have not received any requests from our customers on the need to resume production earlier." The company added that they are working with the local governments to facilitate the necessary preparations for their employees to safely return to work.

But some companies are still on track to restart operations at the beginning of the week as planned.

In Shenzhen, electrical vehicle maker BYD is expected to resume operations on Monday, as is telecom gear maker ZTE.

American electric vehicle maker Tesla, which launched its first Chinese plant in Shanghai last year, will also restart operations on Monday. The Shanghai city government said Saturday it supports the resumption of production at Tesla and other companies.

But smaller jurisdictions and towns are asking to be granted authority to extend mandatory shutdowns.

According to Chinese media, Yuzhong District, which is the center of the city of Chongqing and home to many government institutions and offices, had notified companies Saturday to hold off on restarting operations even after Monday. With no sign that the outbreak is subsiding, there is the possibility that more companies will voluntarily hold off resuming operations.

Takashi Kawakami in Guangzhou contributed to this report

20200206 next week is target week

Will we see temp high next  week as target

The deadly virus will widespread by information control by china.

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

20200205 Nasdaq 100 new high

As said before, Nasdaq100 has big singal last week and hit new high yesterday

Monday, February 3, 2020

20200203 Panasonic

    * Follows years of production troubles, delays at U.S.
partner
    * Tesla reported second successive qtrly profit last week
    * Panasonic cautious about further expansion in Tesla
business
    * Panasonic to set up Toyota JV in April

 (Adds Tesla share performance)
    By Makiko Yamazaki
    TOKYO, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Panasonic Corp <6752.T> reported
the first quarterly profit in its U.S. battery business with
Tesla Inc <TSLA.O> on Monday, after several years of production
troubles and delays at the U.S. partner.
    The news comes after the U.S. electric vehicle maker
reported its second successive quarterly profit last week, as
vehicle deliveries hit a record. Tesla also said it would
comfortably make more than half a million units this year,
pushing its shares to new highs. [nL4N29Y45D] 
    Tesla's shares rose 10% on Monday to another record high of
$719. Since the quarterly results on Jan. 29, the stock has
gained almost 24%.
    Tesla short-sellers have been on the receiving end of the
stock's rally. Currently, almost 14% of its shares are shorted.
Traders shorting Tesla have lost about $900 million in just the
first two trading days of 2020, according to S3 Partners, a
financial analytics firm.
    Investment management firm Ark Invest, in a note dated Jan.
31, said it expects price target of the Tesla stock to hit
$7,000 by 2024, citing gross margins as the star of the
company's growth story.
    "We are catching up as Tesla is quickly expanding
production," Panasonic Chief Financial Officer Hirokazu Umeda
told an earnings briefing, referring to battery cell production.
    "Higher production volume is helping to push down materials
costs and erase losses."
    Panasonic first invested in Tesla in 2010 and announced its
partnership in building the U.S. firm's Gigafactory plant in
Nevada in 2014 as part of its strategic shift from low-margin
consumer electronics to automotive components.
    But as its $1.6 billion Gigafactory investment failed to
produce solid returns, Panasonic has grown cautious about its
battery business with Tesla.
    It chose not to build a new battery plant for Tesla in
China, ceding its battery cell monogamy as Tesla entered into a
partnership with South Korea's LG Chem Ltd <051910.KS> and
China's CATL <300750.SZ>. [nL4N29Z336]
    "We will focus on demand at Gigafactory for Model 3 and
Model Y," Umeda said. 
    Panasonic is turning to Toyota Motor Corp <7203.T> for
battery partnership, setting up a joint venture for electric
vehicle (EV) batteries in April. [nL4N2A31YE]
    Panasonic said operating profit for the October-December
quarter rose 3% to 100.4 billion yen ($915 million), beating
analysts' estimates by 49%, thanks to the improvement at the
Tesla battery business as well as cost cuts.
    It maintained its profit forecast for the year through March
at 300 billion yen, above an average estimate of 295.14 billion
yen by 20 analysts.
($1=109.7000 yen)

 (Reporting by Makiko Yamazaki; Additional reporting by Kevin
Buckland and Neha Malara; Editing by Himani Sarkar, Clarence
Fernandez and Maju Samuel)
 ((Makiko.Yamazaki@thomsonreuters.com; +81-3-4563-2805;))

Rank : positive
    * Follows years of production troubles, delays at U.S.
partner
    * Tesla reported second successive qtrly profit last week
    * Panasonic cautious about further expansion in Tesla
business
    * Panasonic to set up Toyota JV in April

 (Adds Tesla share performance)
    By Makiko Yamazaki
    TOKYO, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Panasonic Corp <6752.T> reported
the first quarterly profit in its U.S. battery business with
Tesla Inc <TSLA.O> on Monday, after several years of production
troubles and delays at the U.S. partner.
    The news comes after the U.S. electric vehicle maker
reported its second successive quarterly profit last week, as
vehicle deliveries hit a record. Tesla also said it would
comfortably make more than half a million units this year,
pushing its shares to new highs. [nL4N29Y45D] 
    Tesla's shares rose 10% on Monday to another record high of
$719. Since the quarterly results on Jan. 29, the stock has
gained almost 24%.
    Tesla short-sellers have been on the receiving end of the
stock's rally. Currently, almost 14% of its shares are shorted.
Traders shorting Tesla have lost about $900 million in just the
first two trading days of 2020, according to S3 Partners, a
financial analytics firm.
    Investment management firm Ark Invest, in a note dated Jan.
31, said it expects price target of the Tesla stock to hit
$7,000 by 2024, citing gross margins as the star of the
company's growth story.
    "We are catching up as Tesla is quickly expanding
production," Panasonic Chief Financial Officer Hirokazu Umeda
told an earnings briefing, referring to battery cell production.
    "Higher production volume is helping to push down materials
costs and erase losses."
    Panasonic first invested in Tesla in 2010 and announced its
partnership in building the U.S. firm's Gigafactory plant in
Nevada in 2014 as part of its strategic shift from low-margin
consumer electronics to automotive components.
    But as its $1.6 billion Gigafactory investment failed to
produce solid returns, Panasonic has grown cautious about its
battery business with Tesla.
    It chose not to build a new battery plant for Tesla in
China, ceding its battery cell monogamy as Tesla entered into a
partnership with South Korea's LG Chem Ltd <051910.KS> and
China's CATL <300750.SZ>. [nL4N29Z336]
    "We will focus on demand at Gigafactory for Model 3 and
Model Y," Umeda said. 
    Panasonic is turning to Toyota Motor Corp <7203.T> for
battery partnership, setting up a joint venture for electric
vehicle (EV) batteries in April. [nL4N2A31YE]
    Panasonic said operating profit for the October-December
quarter rose 3% to 100.4 billion yen ($915 million), beating
analysts' estimates by 49%, thanks to the improvement at the
Tesla battery business as well as cost cuts.
    It maintained its profit forecast for the year through March
at 300 billion yen, above an average estimate of 295.14 billion
yen by 20 analysts.
($1=109.7000 yen)

 (Reporting by Makiko Yamazaki; Additional reporting by Kevin
Buckland and Neha Malara; Editing by Himani Sarkar, Clarence
Fernandez and Maju Samuel)
 ((Makiko.Yamazaki@thomsonreuters.com; +81-3-4563-2805;))

Rank : positive

20200203 Temp low this week?

NDX 100 have buy signal last week and filled order near market close for QQQ and SHM, and bought Tsla.

DJI will have temp low this week?

Please be prepared for next round of selling.

Some HSI bears were taken profit and some swap to higher leverage bear.
Bought 1888 and 1672 and Tokohu Electricity, Unicharm today

Next target week is in March 🤑🤑🥳📉📉📉📉

Bear market

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